When Streams Curve Away: a Test of Dark Matter from Extragalactic Stellar Stream Populations

N. Starkman, J. Nibauer, S. Pearson, S. Wu‡, L. Necib

The Astrophysical Journal·2026submitted

When Streams Curve Away: a Test of Dark Matter from Extragalactic Stellar Stream PopulationsWhen Streams Curve Awaysubmitted
Likelihood ratio between CDM and SIDM plotted against the observed fraction of streams with a convex segment, for catalogs of 100, 1,000 and 10,000 streams. The curves steepen with catalog size; at 10,000 streams, either predicted rate is strongly favored.

The Astrophysical JournalApJ·2026submitted·N. Starkman, J. Nibauer, et al.N. Starkman, J. Nibauer, S. Pearson, et al.N. Starkman, J. Nibauer, S. Pearson, S. Wu‡, L. Necib·The Astrophysical JournalApJ·2026submitted

The Astrophysical JournalApJ·2026submitted

How often stellar streams curve away from their host galaxy’s center can tell cold from self-interacting dark matter at up to 5σ, with catalogs the size Euclid, Rubin and Roman will provide.

How often stellar streams curve away from their host galaxy’s center can tell cold from self-interacting dark matter at up to 5σ, with catalogs the size Euclid, Rubin and Roman will provide. In a spherical halo a stream cannot curve this way in projection; in a triaxial halo, which cold dark matter predicts, it can. The test needs only the stream’s projected track and the host’s center: no distances, velocities or model of the stream’s progenitor.

Streams and test orbits

The two simulated streams of Paper Figure 4 and the two test orbits of Paper Figure 3, in the same halo. Drag the globe to turn it, or drag a square to see that stream or orbit from there: red marks where it bends away from the galaxy's centre. Inside the globe, distances from the centre are on a square-root scale: a point r from the centre is drawn at √(r / 90 kpc) of the globe's radius. The sky panels are to scale.

Uniform boxes of halo shapes

Paper Figure 5, with boxes of halo shapes you draw. Drag on the left panel to draw a box in (c/a, b/a); on the right it shows up as the paper marks CDM and SIDM, as a dot-dashed line at the box's mean projected flattening with diamonds at its mean rates, and the table gives the values. A box weights every shape inside it equally. The paper's CDM and SIDM lines do not: they average over the Auriga halos' own shapes (and their rounded SIDM counterparts), which are not spread evenly over the dotted boxes that outline them, so a box drawn over a dotted box need not land on the paper's line.