When Streams Curve Away: a Test of Dark Matter from Extragalactic Stellar Stream Populations

N. Starkman, J. Nibauer, S. Pearson, S. Wu‡, L. Necib

The Astrophysical Journal·2026submitted

When Streams Curve Away: a Test of Dark Matter from Extragalactic Stellar Stream PopulationsWhen Streams Curve Awaysubmitted
Likelihood ratio between CDM and SIDM plotted against the observed fraction of streams with a convex segment, for catalogs of 100, 1,000 and 10,000 streams. The curves steepen with catalog size; at 10,000 streams, either predicted rate is strongly favored.

The Astrophysical JournalApJ·2026submitted·N. Starkman, J. Nibauer, et al.N. Starkman, J. Nibauer, S. Pearson, et al.N. Starkman, J. Nibauer, S. Pearson, S. Wu‡, L. Necib·The Astrophysical JournalApJ·2026submitted

The Astrophysical JournalApJ·2026submitted

How often stellar streams curve away from their host galaxy’s center can tell cold from self-interacting dark matter at up to 5σ, with catalogs the size Euclid, Rubin and Roman will provide.

How often stellar streams curve away from their host galaxy’s center can tell cold from self-interacting dark matter at up to 5σ, with catalogs the size Euclid, Rubin and Roman will provide. In a spherical halo a stream cannot curve this way in projection; in a triaxial halo, which cold dark matter predicts, it can. The test needs only the stream’s projected track and the host’s center: no distances, velocities or model of the stream’s progenitor.

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Paper Figure 5

Paper Figure 5: Per-stream convexity rates in a grid of triaxial NFW halo potentials. Left: colors show , the fraction of streams with a convex segment longer than . White contours are lines of constant  (colorbar).
Paper Figure 5. Per-stream convexity rates in a grid of triaxial NFW halo potentials. Left: colors show , the fraction of streams with a convex segment longer than . White contours are lines of constant (colorbar). The blank wedge has , excluded by definition. The blue dotted box is the joint interquartile region of the Auriga hydrodynamic CDM halos in . The green dotted box shows an extrapolated with-baryons SIDM counterpart, obtained by rounding those halo shapes for . Right: the same potentials are plotted against , their mean projected minor-to-major density-axis ratio. The colored curve and gray band show the median and orbit-to-orbit spread of ; black dashed curves show how the rate varies among intrinsic halo shapes with the same , e.g. the difference between more oblate and more prolate halos. Solid red curves and their shaded envelope show how varies among intrinsic halo shapes with the same . The arc-length rate is the fraction of stream length that is convex. It requires convexity over much of a stream, whereas requires one resolved segment. A survey's rate should lie between them. Black dot-dashed lines, labeled CDM in blue and SIDM in green, mark the mean of the two populations. At each line, the upper white diamond gives the mean and the lower white diamond gives the mean . The rounder SIDM population has a lower convexity rate, enabling a statistical test with many streams. The paper provides further details.