When Streams Curve Away: a Test of Dark Matter from Extragalactic Stellar Stream Populations

N. Starkman, J. Nibauer, S. Pearson, S. Wu‡, L. Necib

The Astrophysical Journal·2026submitted

When Streams Curve Away: a Test of Dark Matter from Extragalactic Stellar Stream PopulationsWhen Streams Curve Awaysubmitted
Likelihood ratio between CDM and SIDM plotted against the observed fraction of streams with a convex segment, for catalogs of 100, 1,000 and 10,000 streams. The curves steepen with catalog size; at 10,000 streams, either predicted rate is strongly favored.

The Astrophysical JournalApJ·2026submitted·N. Starkman, J. Nibauer, et al.N. Starkman, J. Nibauer, S. Pearson, et al.N. Starkman, J. Nibauer, S. Pearson, S. Wu‡, L. Necib·The Astrophysical JournalApJ·2026submitted

The Astrophysical JournalApJ·2026submitted

How often stellar streams curve away from their host galaxy’s center can tell cold from self-interacting dark matter at up to 5σ, with catalogs the size Euclid, Rubin and Roman will provide.

How often stellar streams curve away from their host galaxy’s center can tell cold from self-interacting dark matter at up to 5σ, with catalogs the size Euclid, Rubin and Roman will provide. In a spherical halo a stream cannot curve this way in projection; in a triaxial halo, which cold dark matter predicts, it can. The test needs only the stream’s projected track and the host’s center: no distances, velocities or model of the stream’s progenitor.

← All figures

Paper Figure 7

Paper Figure 7. Required stream sample size to distinguish CDM from SIDM to some (the paper), as a function of the CDM convexity rate . Solid lines assume that, as suggested by our simulations, SIDM produces times the CDM rate of convex streams; shaded bands show the simulated range . A larger or a smaller (stronger SIDM sphericalization) both reduce the required sample size. A horizontal dashed line with upward arrows marks the lower bound on expected stream-catalog sizes for Euclid; more realistic Euclid predictions, and Rubin/Roman, expect an order-of-magnitude larger sample. A gray line at marks approximate current catalog sizes. A vertical dot-dashed line marks the CDM convexity rate, , predicted by our illustrative simulation (the paper). This is a forecast. It neglects observer effects and the cosmological evolution of halo shapes; both modulate the effective and . For the simulated convexity rates shown here, large catalogs of streams can distinguish between CDM and SIDM.